Hurricane Helene brings severe storm surge, strong winds and flooding

Hurricane Helene has strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane and may hit Florida tonight with record storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rains.

Because of Helene’s rapid speed, dangers will spread far inland by Friday. Life-threatening flash flooding, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee.

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Here is the current status: Helene’s center is located just under 320 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, and is moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 100 mph.

Parts of Florida and the southeastern United States experienced heavy rains well before the hurricane, triggering occasional flash flood and tornado warnings. Gusts of up to 64 mph were seen in Fort Lauderdale this morning and up to 56 mph in Naples.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado warning for the central and southern peninsula of Florida, parts of eastern Georgia, and central and southern South Carolina until the early evening hours.

Helene’s structure near its center limited its rate of intensification overnight, but it is now better organized as it is surrounded by low wind shear and deep, warm ocean waters, favoring further strengthening to a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) before its landfall this evening.

Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 345 miles from Helene’s center, making it a major hurricane. This enormous size and its high forward speed are the reasons why Helene poses such a large coastal storm surge threat, with widespread danger of strong winds and flooding rains inland.

Current observations and warnings: A hurricane warning is in effect for Florida’s Big Bend and Nature Coast into middle Georgia, including Tallahassee, Albany and Macon. Storm surge warnings are in effect from Mexico Beach south to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

As the map below shows, tropical storm warnings are in effect for most of the rest of Florida and Georgia, which are not under hurricane warnings, as well as all of South Carolina and much of western North Carolina.

These warnings mean that hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge conditions are expected in these areas as Helene moves in tonight and into Friday.

Those in the warned areas should implement their hurricane plans and follow all advice from local emergency management authorities.

Here is the timeline:

-​ Thursday: Helene is expected to reach its peak intensity as a Category 3 or higher hurricane in the eastern Gulf and then make landfall as a large, intense hurricane somewhere along Florida’s Big Bend on Thursday evening. Its effects (storm surge, wind, rain) will be felt far from that landfall point, as is typical for larger storms.​

-​ Friday: Helene will move quickly northward through the Southeast toward the southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley with strong, potentially destructive wind gusts, torrential rain, and isolated tornadoes.

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Impact on the USA

Storm surge

Below is the National Hurricane Center’s storm surge forecast. As you can see, storm surge flooding is expected across much of Florida’s Gulf Coast, including areas as far south as the Keys.

Given Helene’s expected large wind field, significant storm surge is also expected in the Tampa-St. Pete-Sarasota metropolitan areas, expected to be several feet higher than the flooding experienced by Hurricane Idalia over a year ago.

If you live near the coast, know your evacuation zone and follow all instructions from your local emergency management agency.

Winds

As previously mentioned, Helene will be both a large, intense, and fast-moving hurricane in the Gulf and will move inland. This means its strong winds will cover a larger area and move farther inland than usual.

Hurricane-force winds (over 75 mph) are expected in a section of the Florida Panhandle north into southern and central Georgia Thursday evening. Downed trees and power outages could be common in these areas, and even building damage is possible.

Tropical storm-force winds (62 to 127 km/h) could then penetrate far inland during the night from Thursday to Friday and reach large parts of northern Georgia, eastern Alabama, South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. Fallen trees and power outages are likely in these areas. This also includes the Atlanta metropolitan area.

Precipitation

Rainfall from Helene could trigger catastrophic Flooding in parts of the southern Appalachians.

That’s because the region was already drenched in heavy rains on Wednesday before Helene arrived from parts of Georgia, including the Atlanta metropolitan area, in the southern Appalachians.

Helene’s heavy rainbands will impact these increasingly soaked areas from Thursday through at least Friday morning.

This heavy rain and the hilly and mountainous terrain create prime conditions for destructive, life-threatening flooding and landslides. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a rare flood warning for northeast Georgia into western North Carolina.

Rainfall totals in parts of northern Georgia into northern South Carolina and western North Carolina could reach 18 inches (460 mm). And as if that wasn’t enough, increasingly moist soil in the Southeast could also make it easier for Helene’s winds to topple trees.

Elsewhere, at least 3 inches of rain is expected over a wide area, from Florida to the central Appalachians and westward into Kentucky, Tennessee and parts of the middle Mississippi Valley. At least localized flash flooding is possible in these areas.

Tornado threat

Many hurricanes that make landfall also create a tornado threat to the right (or in this case, east) of the direction of their center.

In parts of Florida, southeastern Georgia, and southern and eastern South Carolina, the likelihood of some tornadoes is greatest on Thursday and Thursday night.

There is a possibility of a few tornadoes on Friday, extending into eastern parts of South and North Carolina and southern Virginia.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Contact him at X (formerly Twitter), Topics, on facebook. And Blue sky.