Phillies will likely get playoff break this time, plus Mike Trout's next era

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With six days to go before the end of the regular season, it’s officially champagne season. The race for the AL wild card is a beautiful mess. The Mets and Diamondbacks are trying to keep the Braves at bay. Pull out those tiebreaker scenarios! The playoffs are just around the corner. I’m Rustin Dodd — as a replacement for Levi Weaver — with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!

The future of a superstar: Will Mike Trout ever be truly great again?

The athleteAndy McCullough and Sam Blum published an in-depth story yesterday about the Angels’ Mike Trout, who is quietly becoming this generation’s Ken Griffey Jr. – a transcendent superstar who struggles with injuries in his 30s and never manages to reach his former peak.

From the story:

“Trout’s baseball existence is now focused on that single goal: to resemble the unique talent he was before injuries derailed his career. His final place in Cooperstown remains assured. But his time as one of baseball’s best players appears to be over. The milestones that once seemed so certain – 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, 1,500 RBIs – may be out of reach, as he has played an average of just 66 games per season since 2021 and hasn’t played more than 140 games since 2016.”

The story delves into the injuries that have derailed the 33-year-old Trout and asks a simple question: Can he handle being just a good player after playing like one of the all-time greats for nearly a decade?

But it also made me think of Shohei Ohtani, Trout’s former teammate on the Angels. True greatness is fleeting, and one day Ohtani will no longer be Ohtani. But it’s also been 10 years since we saw Trout in the postseason, and as we wait to see Ohtani on the Dodgers in October, I wonder: Would Trout have been better off if he had done what Ohtani did?

At least one former MLB manager thinks so.

“If I had one wish, it would be that he could play for a team that has a chance of making the playoffs,” Former Angels manager Joe Maddon says in the story: “A team that can give him a break on a regular basis – even if he might not want it. Or put him in a position that saves him a little stress. Just to get him on the field.”

Ken’s notebook: After the division title, the Phillies will probably get a break

During spring training, I was in the Philadelphia Phillies locker room when players learned of Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker’s comments about the impact of the five-day break before the Division Series.

Snitker said he didn’t like the playoff system, explaining, “It’s hard to get going when you haven’t seen anything for five days.” Some Phillies took offense, believing Snitker was making excuses and belittling their consecutive wins over the Braves in the DS. The Phils said they would much rather have the rest. This year, after winning their first NL East title since 2011, they are on track to win it.

The bye teams will most likely be the Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL and the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians in the AL. In 2022, the first year of the current format, two of the four bye teams in the DS were upset. In 2023, it was three of four, with only the Houston Astros advancing.

When asked if there was anything about the firing that made him nervous, Phillies manager Rob Thomson said last week: The athleteMatt Gelb and others: “Nothing really. Because I think the strain of the season, the tiredness, is taking its toll and I think they deserve some rest.” They need the rest. I think when we get there, we have a few things planned that I won’t reveal yet. But I think we will keep them fit.”

And what about the potential disruption to the timing of his batsmen?

“I think I’m less concerned about our hitting coaches (Kevin Long, Dustin Lind and Rafael Pena), the way they work and their intelligence than I am about anyone else.”

The Phillies are expected to play simulated games during their break, using players from Triple A so they can field two lineups. Their offense, which collapsed in the final three games of last year’s NLCS, is a bit of a concern. The team was fourth in runs per game on Monday, but only 10th since the All-Star break. This season, their chase rate on throws outside the strike zone was eighth-highest in the major leagues.

We’re being nitpicky to a certain extent. The Phillies’ lineup may not be as strong as the Dodgers’, but it’s still impressive. The Phillies’ 53-26 home record is the best in the major leagues. Their rotation of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez will be one of the best in the postseason. Their bullpen was excellent before the trade deadline, and baseball president David Dombrowski has made it even better with his additions of Carlos Estévez and Tanner Banks.

The off period will present a new challenge. But as Gelb writes, the Phillies have acted like they’re playing from behind all season, despite leading the division for nearly five months. They’re motivated by the end of their 2023 season. And they’ll take advantage of the five days off, thank you very much.

Most underrated player? Without Pasquantino, the Royals have crashed

It remains highest, high Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino is unlikely to receive an AL MVP vote. Before he broke his thumb in late August, he had a batting average of .262/.315/.446 with 19 home runs and 97 RBIs. A very solid season? Yes. But nothing more.

But consider what has happened to the Royals since the 26-year-old Pasquantino was taken out of the lineup:

With Pasquantino: 75-59, 4.88 runs per game
Without Pasquantino*: 7-15, 2.95 runs per game

* Includes the loss on August 29, when Pasquantino was forced out of the event in Houston due to injury.

Of course, it’s not all Pasquantino’s fault. The Royals’ offense also relied heavily on high (and potentially unsustainable) averages with runners in batting position. But consider this a case where analytics don’t quite capture a hitter’s value. Kansas City was very dependent on three hitters – Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Pasquantino. When Pasquantino went down, Perez also stopped hitting with power, and the result was a tremendous collapse that could cost the Royals a playoff spot.

Shohei, Meet October: What will Ohtani deliver in the playoffs?

One of the most amazing things about Shohei Ohtani’s career is that he created a long list of indelible moments – the WBC battle against Mike Trout, three home runs and 10 RBIs on a 50/50 record – and did so without swinging a bat or throwing a pitch once in the postseason.

That’s finally about to change, and Andy McCullough captured the anticipation in this story about Ohtani’s turbulent/historic/incredible season.

“This will really test his patience and discipline,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts The athlete the day before the team secured its 12th consecutive postseason berth last week. “Knowing that he’s basically waited his whole life to be in the major leagues in the postseason. It’s going to be fascinating to watch.”

McCullough writes:

“Ohtani is nothing new when it comes to external obsession. Some in Japan describe him as ‘kanpeki na hito,’ which roughly translates to ‘the perfect person.’ The Dodgers don’t seem to disagree. Roberts has hinted that he could become the best player in baseball history. ‘One of a kind,’ first-base coach Clayton McCullough called him. ‘I don’t see a more talented player than him who has ever played this game,’ said teammate Kiké Hernández. Reliever Daniel Hudson added, ‘I feel pretty lucky to be able to watch him in the front row every night.'”

We suspect he will do something big in October.

Handshakes and high fives

The White Sox are close to overtaking the 1962 Mets for most losses in the modern era. Here, Jon Greenberg sits with former White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen and Chuck Garfien on their postgame show as they close out an epic White Sox season.

This is quite a surprise: The Tigers call up the most promising pitcher Jackson Jobe to the roster to continue their push into the playoffs.

A’s owner John Fisher wrote a letter to fans in which “Loma Prieta” was misspelled.

The latest power rankings are in and show one thing every team is playing for.

NL Wildcard Check-in: The Mets (and Diamondbacks) are trying to keep the Braves in check. The Mets feel like a team of destiny. But… the Braves are a long-time nemesis. That feels right.

AL Wildcard Check-in: It’s a Royal Rumble for the final wild-card spots — and as mentioned, the Royals may not be there. The up-and-coming Tigers have a good chance of closing out the season with a three-game series against the White Sox. But the Twins hold the tiebreakers against the Royals and Tigers.

Now all you have to do is watch. But first, here’s a look at the contestants who have already secured their place in the dance and those who are still trying out.

Most clicked in yesterday’s newsletter: The White Sox social media administrators tweeted despite all the pain.

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(Top photo: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

Phillies will likely get playoff break this time, plus Mike Trout’s next era

ByJasper

The future of a superstar: Will Mike Trout ever be truly great again?

Ken’s notebook: After the division title, the Phillies will probably get a break

Most underrated player? Without Pasquantino, the Royals have crashed

Shohei, Meet October: What will Ohtani deliver in the playoffs?

Handshakes and high fives

By Jasper

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