MLB odds, tips, bets Wednesday

Editor’s note: This story was updated early Wednesday afternoon after it was announced that Yankees projected starter Nestor Cortes will have to undergo an MRI scan of his elbow, which will likely impact the pitching matchup. The original bet was on under 7.5 runs at +100 odds on FanDuel.

The Orioles secured their return to the postseason with their 5-3 win over the top-ranked Yankees on Tuesday, but that doesn’t mean the rest of their final series against each other won’t matter.

Zach Eflin has already faced the Yankees three times this year, but Wednesday will be his first game as an Oriole since joining from Tampa Bay at the MLB trade deadline.

Although Eflin has an 0-2 record in those starts against New York, he has been weighed down by the Rays’ inadequate run support and confused fielding.

He still held a 2.50 ERA in 18 innings against the Yankees and went 3-0 strikeouts, recording at least five strikeouts in each game.

Eflin has reaped a lucrative return in 2024 when his ceiling was set at 4.5, having exceeded that number in nearly 60 percent of his starts.

Most interestingly, Eflin was more prone to earned runs on the road than at home. Yet his strikeout rate per nine remained even, at over seven on both sides of the split, according to FanGraphs.

The reliable veteran was a perfect fit as the third pitcher in a top-heavy rotation plagued by season-ending injuries, but his most valuable asset to O’s management is that he rarely takes a step.

Eflin’s ability to throw consistent strikes has resulted in a 2.9 percent walk rate, his career-best in a statistical category he has consistently dominated.

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According to Statcast, the Yankees have allowed more walks than any other team in baseball.

Let’s stick with Eflin to continue the healthy strikeout trend against the Pinstripes as the O’s prepare for the postseason.

THE GAME: Zach Eflin over 4.5 strikeouts (-146, FanDuel)

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Sean Treppedi rates NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He focuses primarily on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to minimize risk.