Polls show Ruben Gallego ahead of Kari Lake in the race for the US Senate in Arizona

Three polls from two different organizations continued the series of surveys showing Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego with a significant lead over his Republican rival Kari Lake.

Last week, polls of likely voters by The New York Times and The London Telegraph showed Gallego leading by 6 and 5 percentage points, respectively. A Times poll of registered voters also showed Gallego leading by 9 percentage points.

Polls have supported Gallegos’ consistent lead over Lake since Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-Arizona) announced in March that she would not run for another six-year term.

Gallego was ahead in 39 of the 42 head-to-head polls tracked by the nonpartisan political website FiveThirtyEight.com since early March.

Two polls conducted in July and August by Republican-leaning clients showed a neck-and-neck race. A July poll for Lake showed a one-percentage-point lead.

Since August, Gallegos’ lead in the polls has ranged from just 2 points in a poll by the conservative Club for Growth Action to 15 points in a Fox News poll.

The political website Real Clear Politics gives Gallego a lead of 4.6 percentage points in its average polls over the past month.

Early voting begins on October 9, the day Lake and Gallego will have their only debate in the race.

How do political forecasters assess the situation regarding Lake vs. Gallego?

Three non-partisan political forecasting organizations also currently give Gallego the lead.

Inside Elections classifies the race as “Democratic-leaning.”

Sabatos Crystal Ball describes the organization as “rather democratic.”

The Cook Political Report classifies them as “more Democratic.”

What do the betting markets say about the Senate race in Arizona?

The betting markets for political forecasts also favor Gallego.

Polymarket, which claims to be the largest betting market in the world, gives the Democrat from Arizona an 83% chance of winning.

According to PredictIt, an online betting market developed by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, the return on a bet on the Democrats in Arizona is four times higher than on the Republicans.

What else should voters know?

In late August, Lake stood out for all the wrong reasons in the eight most hotly contested Senate races across the country.

Lake had received the least support from Republicans in booking future television spots, a key point widely seen in political circles as a sign of serious competition.

Democrats in Arizona have won three consecutive Senate elections since 2018. That streak ended a 30-year drought that also included nine consecutive victories for Republicans.

Since Sinema won her seat as a Democrat in 2018, the party has won each time by about 2 percentage points.

Polls show Ruben Gallego ahead of Kari Lake in the race for the US Senate in Arizona

ByJasper

How do political forecasters assess the situation regarding Lake vs. Gallego?

What do the betting markets say about the Senate race in Arizona?

What else should voters know?

By Jasper

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