Mysterious group of voters could split ballots for Trump and Democratic Senate candidate in Arizona

A group of voters could give Democrats a Senate victory in Arizona while also helping former President Trump win this key swing state.

Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris among registered voters in Arizona, 49% to 45%, in a new poll from the New York Times and Siena College, a notable change from her numbers last month, when Harris was in the lead.

At the same time, Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego of Arizona defeated Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake by 50% to 41%.

A spokesperson for Lake told Fox News Digital: “President Trump’s consistently strong lead in Arizona proves that Arizonans are fed up and dissatisfied with the policies of Kamala Harris and Ruben Gallego. These policies have led to record inflation and made our state less safe by opening the border to millions of unchecked illegal immigrants. When voters learn the truth about Gallego’s voting record and the fact that he voted 100% for Biden and Harris’ policies, they will reject Radical Ruben just as they reject Kamala Harris.”

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Both former President Trump and Representative Ruben Gallego were supported by the police group. (Reuters)

Her campaign team also pointed to a CNN poll from earlier this month that showed Gallego at 47% and Lake at 44% – a much closer margin.

According to the New York Times, “Respondents who said they would split their ticket – that is, support Mr. Gallego and Mr. Trump – were much more likely to be Latino, have less college education and have lower incomes.”

The poll was conducted in English and Spanish via mobile and landline phones in Arizona. 2,077 likely voters were surveyed between September 17 and 21. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points for the likely electorate and +/- 2.4 percentage points among registered voters.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Gallego voted 100% in line with President Biden and the Harris administration in the 117th Congress and is by no means a fan of Trump, while the former president is an ardent supporter of Lake.

Despite their political differences, they have managed to win over an important group of voters at the same time.

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Donald Trump and Kamala Harris (FoxNews)

“You always have to consider whether gender plays a role in American politics,” Melissa Michelson, dean of the School of Humanities and Sciences and professor of political science at Menlo College in California, told Fox News Digital.

Trump and Gallego both have to contend with women in their respective election campaigns.

“Gender researchers tell us that women face additional challenges when running,” she explains.

Trump’s election in 2016 highlighted his strength among those without college degrees. He has also proven his ability to appeal to non-white voters, including Latinos, who are considered an integral part of the Democratic coalition.

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Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake is supported by Trump. (Getty Images)

His continued appeal to this type of voter is also evident in the latest poll. “And yes, these same voters would be more likely to favor the Latino candidate,” Michelson said, explaining the preference of some of these voters for Gallego in the Senate race.

She noted that Latinos are more likely to vote Democrat and that they are also more likely to vote for Latino candidates. “When a candidate ahead of you is of both your ethnic group and your party, it’s easy,” Michelson noted.

As for whether women might feel inclined to vote for female candidates, she pointed out that gender is “not such a strong identity or motivation factor in voting decisions.”

“People just don’t think about their gender in the same way they think about their race.”

Given the recent decline in split-ticket voting, the possibility of a split outcome in Arizona, with Trump winning the presidency and Gallego taking the vacant Senate seat, would be notable.

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Trump was able to find support among Latinos. (Getty Images)

Republican strategist Kevin Madden said the vote ultimately came down to “candidate.”

“Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Ruben Gallego in Arizona are examples of two candidates whose campaigns are very carefully planned and tailored to the political environment of their state,” he told Fox News Digital.

It’s true that Gallego has made a concerted effort to reach a Latino male audience. On Cinco de Mayo this year, his campaign held a watch party at the JL Boxing Academy in Glendale, which was showing a fight between Mexican boxing champion Canelo Álvarez and fellow undefeated fighter Jaime Munguía. The venue was reportedly equipped with large screens broadcasting the fight, and there were food trucks outside selling birria tacos and Mexican Coke.

The party was expected to attract over 100 guests, mostly Latinos from Arizona and their families.

Gallego held another boxing event at the same venue last week.

“They’re doing everything they can to get out of the national political jet stream and make their campaign less of a proxy for the presidential campaign,” Madden said.

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Michelson claimed that the Arizona Police Association’s (APA) recent endorsements for Gallego and Trump could encourage the increasingly rare practice of split-ticket voting. Although the union supports Trump and reportedly backed Lake in her 2022 run for governor, it chose Democrat Gallego in the 2024 Senate election.

However, earlier this month, Lake received the endorsement of another police union, the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police.

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