How much should Royals fans hold back at the moment?

The Royals currently have a good chance of a playoff spot, but things have gotten tighter in recent days after losing two games to the charging Tigers. Kansas City has lost three games in a row, with stranded baserunners being the main reason for the losses. Royals hitters have scored 6 of 32 runs with runners in scoring position in the last three games.

Despite the slump, they are still in a good position to make the playoffs. The Royals have a three-game lead over the Tigers and are in the playoffs with only ten games remaining. The Twins are also hot on their heels. Fangraphs puts their chances of making the playoffs at 93 percent, while Baseball Prospectus puts them at 91 percent.

The Tigers need to finish four games better than the Royals in their final ten games as Kansas City has the tiebreaker. Detroit still has a tough trip to Baltimore this weekend, followed by a home game against the Rays and an easy series against the White Sox. The Royals host the Giants this weekend before playing on the road against a losing Nationals club and a struggling Braves team that is fading out of the playoffs. The Twins are also 1.5 games behind the Royals and have two road games left at Cleveland and a weekend series in Boston before returning home to face the Marlins and Orioles.

Baseball is a game of ups and downs. The Royals have lost three games in a row – before that they won seven of nine games. And before that they had lost seven games in a row. And before that they had won 10 of 13 games. They are not the only team like that. The Yankees have the best overall record in the league this year, but they have also had lows that have left their fans wondering what the hell was wrong with them. The Astros are off to a terrible start. The Guardians went 12-17 in August.

In baseball, your momentum is only as good as the starting pitcher of the day. And the Royals have good starting pitchers! Their 3.54 ERA among starters is the second best in baseball. And they’re not letting up – they have a 2.73 ERA in September.

If you zoom out, you can see that the Royals have been a pretty good team for some time.

That’s not to say there aren’t real concerns, of course. The team has been one of the best hitting teams with runners in scoring position for most of the year, posting a .284 overall batting average in those situations, but over the last month that’s become a problem. Since Vinnie Pasquantino left the field with a broken thumb on Aug. 29, Royals hitters have hit just 26 of 127 (.205) with runners in scoring position. But that’s really just a symptom of how bad things have been overall over the last month—the offense as a whole has a .216/.282/.342 batting average since losing Vinnie and is averaging just 3.47 runs per game. Only the White Sox have been worse offensively during that time.

The bullpen is still struggling, losing Will Smith, Chris Stratton and James McArthur to injury, although they haven’t contributed much this season anyway. The relief staff has pitched a little better in September — in fact, they have the fifth-best strikeout rate in baseball this month. In a short series, having pitchers like Alec Marsh and possibly Brady Singer in the bullpen could be valuable. But the Royals need to get there first.

The season is now a week and a half sprint to the finish line, and the Royals have a lead over the Twins and Tigers. Anything can happen in sports, but the Royals are a really good team that has bounced back from losing streaks before this season. It’s not time for Royals fans to get hung up yet, but the guys need to show something in the final ten games.