The penultimate series of the season for our Atlanta Braves is here and it looks like it’s going to be a real blast. The Braves host the New York Mets and once again the stakes couldn’t be higher for a late season series between these two teams. An NL wild card spot is on the line here and the next three games could very well decide who gets that wild card spot.
If the Braves want to earn that spot here at home, they’ll have to earn it, as the Mets have been red hot here in the second half of the season. They’re currently 38-23 since the break, and their stats since last playing the Braves on July 29 are extremely impressive. According to wRC+, they’ve hit .248/.323/.417 with a wOBA of .323 and a wRC+ of 111 since their last meeting with the Braves. Atlanta has actually kept up with them offensively since then, as the Braves themselves have hit .251/.322/.439 with a wOBA of .329 and a wRC+ of 111.
Atlanta also has the power advantage, as they’ve hit .187 in isolated power and 81 home runs since then, compared to New York’s .169 in isolated power and 65 home runs. Francisco Lindor has been the engine of this team’s offense, with Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias also dangerous. Additionally, Luisangel Acuña has come out hot after being called up and you know he really wants to show what he can do in his big brother’s stadium. Regardless, this New York lineup has done its job well so far and it really wouldn’t be a surprise if they continue to do so in this series.
Meanwhile, their pitching staff has been particularly impressive during this stretch. The Mets pitching staff has a combined ERA of 85 (fifth-best in baseball since), FIP of 85 (third-best in that span), and wRC+ of 94 (top-10 in baseball since) since July 29. This is another case where Atlanta’s pitching staff has been just as good during that span (87 ERA, 82 FIP, 80 xFIP to boot), so it wouldn’t be particularly surprising if this ended up being a three-way battle of pitchers. Unfortunately for the Braves, they also have to deal with the top players in New York’s rotation, and on top of that, Edwin Diaz seems to be returning to the point where you definitely don’t want to get to the ninth (or even eighth, apparently) inning when that guy has a lead out there. So, yes, this was supposed to be a tough series, but did you really expect anything different with the postseason on the line?
Tuesday, September 24, 7:20 p.m. ET, Bally Sports South
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (19 GS, 109.2 IP, 86 ERA-, 83 FIP-, 26.3 K%, 3.9 BB%)
Schwellenbach’s baptism of fire as a rookie continues, as he has been called upon to start in the most important game of the season (until Wednesday’s game becomes the most important game of the season). The good news for us is that Schwellenbach has been very reliable this season, and his last two starts have gone really well. He’s pitched 12 innings in his last two starts, allowing five hits, three walks, three runs, and 11 strikeouts. This was against a Dodgers lineup that’s getting into momentum and an inconsistent Reds lineup, so he manages to get it done against all kinds of baseball life.
He also has a pretty good track record against the Mets. Schwellenbach didn’t need two starts to strike out 11 batters against the Mets, as he did so in a single seven-inning start against New York on July 27. That start has been the crown jewel of Schwellenbach’s rookie season so far, and it would be absolutely fantastic if he could find a way to repeat that feat on Tuesday night.
RHP Luis Severino (30 GS, 178.0 IP, 96 ERA-, 104 FIP-, 21.1 K%, 8.0 BB%)
After his time in the Bronx ended in a flop, Luis Severino has revived his career in Queens and put together a very solid season on a one-year deal with the Mets. Severino has had at least three starts this season where he went at least eight innings, and just last month he threw a complete game clean sheet with eight strikeouts against the Marlins. However, he hasn’t looked dominant in his last few starts against the Phillies. That’s partly because it’s the Phillies; but also because Severino hasn’t pitched nearly as many innings since 2018. Like Schwellenbach (and Chris Sale), he may be dealing with some fatigue in this final part of the season. He’s had a great start to the month, getting to the seventh inning in two starts and allowing just one run in each of those starts, but that might be something to watch out for.
As for his games against the Braves, the Braves don’t exactly have a strong track record against him here in 2024. Atlanta was only able to score more than two runs against Severino in each of the two starts he had against the Braves this season. He only pitched five innings in each of those starts, but he also tallied 10 strikeouts in those two starts. As you can imagine, Severino isn’t going to be easy to deal with early in this series.
Wednesday, September 25, 7:20 p.m. ET, Bally Sports South
LHP Chris Sale (29 GS, 177.2 IP, 57 ERA-, 53 FIP-, 32.1 K%, 5.6 BB%)
Normally, I’d be talking about how Chris Sale is a surefire candidate for the NL Cy Young Award and has a serious shot at the pitching Triple Crown this season. He’s actually having an incredible season, but at the same time, he’s definitely showing signs of slowing down a bit. Just like Severino, Sale hasn’t thrown nearly as many innings since 2019, and Sale has clearly been doing some self-regulation to make sure he still has enough gas in the tank to help the Braves here in the latter part of the regular season and potentially beyond in October. He still had good starts against the Dodgers and Reds, but it was clear he was definitely holding back a bit.
With that in mind, this seems like the best time to give it his all once again. This will be his last regular season start and it’s against the Mets, so he’ll have to do well. On July 25, he made it to the eighth inning against the Mets, allowing two runs but recording nine strikeouts. The two runs allowed are considered an offensive explosion against Sale this season and the Mets ended up winning the game narrowly 3-2. This would be a great time for Sale to finish off his incredible regular season on a high note and put on a top-notch performance.
LHP David Peterson (20 GS, 114.0 IP, 78 ERA-, 93 FIP-, 19.1 K%, 8.8 BB%)
This was a career year for Peterson, who has amassed 1.7 fWAR this season while also posting career lows in ERA and FIP. This appears to be Peterson’s ceiling, which is not meant to be condescending, but rather to say that around 2 fWAR as a pitcher is a very solid position to be.
Still, Peterson had some trouble in September. He began the month by allowing just one run in six innings while striking out 11 Red Sox batters. He then exited after allowing five runs (four earned) in 4.1 IP against the Blue Jays. He responded by making it to the eighth inning against the Phillies while allowing just one run, but then the Phillies caught up, giving him five runs (again, four earned) in just 3.2 IP in that game. If the pattern continues, the Braves could be in trouble. Hopefully it breaks and Atlanta can pick up where the Phillies left off.
Thursday, September 26, 7:20 p.m. ET, Bally Sports South
LHP Max Fried (28 GS, 165.2 IP, 82 ERA, 86 FIP, 23.0 K%, 8.0 BB%)
This will most likely be Max Fried’s last regular season start as a Braves pitcher and it’s really fitting that this happens in a key game where they need him to max out Fried if they want to have serious postseason hopes. Fried has had a rollercoaster of a season, hitting 3.0 fWAR on the season so far.
The month of September was a prime example of Max Fried’s experience here in 2024. He started the month by pitching seven innings against the Blue Jays, allowing just one unearned run and eight strikeouts. He then went to Washington, where he was tagged for four runs, after which the Dodgers got him for three runs. He then went to Miami and allowed just two runs (one earned) against the Marlins. The good news is that he pitched at least six innings in each of those starts and has managed at least five in each of his last nine starts. Again, the Braves will need Fried at his best – especially if he wants to extend his time with the Braves with a postseason run.
LHP Sean Manaea (31 GS, 178.0 IP, 83 ERA-, 93 FIP-, 25.5 K%, 8.5 BB%)
The Mets are surely happy once again that one of their recent signings chose this season to have one of the best seasons of his respective careers. Sean Manaea is having his best season since 2021. In terms of ERA and FIP, he is probably having the best season of his career in terms of keeping both of those stats pretty low. He has lived up to the expectations the Mets had for him when he signed them and they will surely be hoping he can throw them into the postseason in this game in particular.
Interestingly, the Braves have yet to see Manaea here in 2024, and Atlanta hasn’t played him since August 26 of last year when he came on as a reliever for the Giants and struck out five Braves batters in just 3.2 innings as a reliever. Meanwhile, Manaea has made three straight starts here in 2024 where he made it to the seventh inning. He allowed just one run in those first two starts and three in his last outing against the Phillies. He’s peaking at the right time, and the Braves need to put a stop to him if they want to have a chance to ensure their chances of making the postseason still exist when this series concludes.
