Severe hurricane makes landfall on the US Gulf Coast
A tropical rainstorm is brewing in the Caribbean and will develop into a major hurricane by the end of the week and threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast.
A storm expected to become a Category 3 hurricane, Helene, has its sights set on the area that has now become Florida’s Hurricane Alley.
The tropical cyclone’s track has become familiar to residents of the Panhandle and Big Bend. In August, Category 1 Hurricane Debby made landfall near Taylor and Dixie counties in eastern Big Bend. Its 7 a.m. landfall was just 45 minutes and 10 miles (16 kilometers) from where and when Hurricane Idalia made landfall as a Category 3 in late August 2023. The recent storm and its timing have also been compared to Category 5 Hurricane Michael.
Hurricane warnings were issued for northern Florida and the peninsula on Tuesday morning, a day after Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency, prompting some school districts to announce plans for days-long closures. Helene is expected to make landfall between Destin and Tampa on Thursday evening.
Here are the latest updates from the storm’s path:
Franklin County orders the evacuation of all barrier islands (St. George Island, Dog Island, Bald Point and Alligator Point). The evacuation also includes low-lying and flood-prone areas, particularly along the coast and rivers, as well as mobile homes and RV parks.
The evacuation will take effect at noon today, Franklin County Emergency Management said on Facebook. Further evacuations are possible.
“If you feel unsafe, do not shelter in your home; leave until the storm passes and then return,” Franklin County Emergency Management said in a social media post. “Remember that emergency medical services will not be able to respond to health concerns if wind speeds reach 40 mph sustained. It is not safe to dispatch ambulances during high winds.”
The county’s sandbag sites are open from noon to 5 p.m. today and from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Wednesday. The county will provide sand and bags; residents should bring their own shovels. Here are the locations:
- The Old State Yard, 1090 Bluff Road, Apalachicola
- Vrooman Park, 30 6th St., Eastpoint
- Old Courthouse Annex, 1647 Highway 98, Carrabelle
- SGI Fire Station, 324 E Pine Ave., St. George Island
Schools in Franklin County are closed Wednesday through Friday.
At Big Bend, the expected Hurricane Helene could reach wind speeds of over 177 km/h – strong enough to damage the structure of stable buildings and destroy mobile homes.
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee advises that wind speeds of over 110 mph are possible along the Big Bend coast, from Apalachicola to south of Keaton Beach.
Inland communities including Sneeds, Tallahassee, Monticello, Madison and Mayo, not to mention Thomasville and Valdosta in Georgia, could see winds between 74 and 110 miles per hour.
“Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected near the final landfall location and inland along the route,” the National Weather Service said in a press conference Tuesday morning. “Widespread power outages, damage to critical infrastructure, numerous road blockages and building damage are all possible.”
The NWS also said the power grid will suffer “significant damage” and that outages will likely occur further away from the storm due to its size.
Wright Dobbs, a meteorologist with the weather service, warned that Helene could cause more damage in Tallahassee than Hurricanes Hermine in 2016 and Hurricane Michael in 2018. Both hurricanes devastated Tallahassee’s power grid, but the Panhandle took the brunt of the winds from Michael, a Category 5 storm.
“I can’t tell you how many people think they survived a Category 5 hurricane like Michael in Tallahassee,” Dobbs said in a post on X/Twitter late Monday. “Focus on the potential impacts of THIS storm because if the current potential impacts hold true, it could have a bigger impact than Michael/Hermine in Tally.”
Life-threatening storm surges are possible along the Apalachee Bay coast. Storm surges of 10 to 15 feet are possible between the Ochlockonee River and the Suwannee River, and 6 to 10 feet are possible from the Ochlockonee River west to Indian Pass in Gulf County.
The weather service said rainfall of between 7.5 and 15 centimetres was possible across the region, with isolated rainfall of up to 25 centimetres possible.
The Weather Forecast Center shows that there is a moderate risk (3 out of 4) of excessive precipitation in the region on Thursday. Tornadoes are also possible on Thursday.
A hurricane warning is in effect at Big Bend as a still-disorganized tropical disturbance is expected to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday and hit Florida’s Gulf Coast.
The hurricane warning is in effect for Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Jefferson, Lafayette, Liberty, Leon, Madison, Taylor and Wakulla. The warning means that hurricane strength may occur within the next 48 hours.
According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was in the northwestern Caribbean at 8 a.m. and was moving northwest at 9 p.m.
The system is expected to rapidly intensify from a tropical depression into a tropical storm and hurricane by Wednesday. The Hurricane Center said it will continue to strengthen on Thursday before making landfall.
The Hurricane Center’s latest forecast was not much different from Monday evening’s.
The cone of uncertainty, which has shifted slightly eastward, still shows the hurricane making landfall somewhere between Panama City and Tampa Bay. The centerline of the cone, which forecasters are not supposed to pay attention to, is just east of the Tallahassee area.
“There will be these little fluctuations in the east and the west,” said David Reese, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee. “But this far out they’re more like noise. The track might have shifted 20 or 30 miles to the east. In three days, that’s almost nothing in the world of weather.”
Reese said the biggest change in the forecast is a slowing of the storm’s forward motion, which could cause the storm to reach the Big Bend coast later than previously thought.
“Now it looks more like it could be a Thursday afternoon to Thursday evening event rather than a Thursday morning to Thursday afternoon event,” Reese said.
Contact Jeff Burlew at [email protected] or 850-599-2180.
