If the playoffs were to begin today, the Sun’s most likely opponent would be either the Phoenix Mercury or the Indiana Fever. The first round of the playoffs is a best-of-three series, with the higher seed having home-field advantage for the first two games.
“Obviously we want to have the home court advantage. And I think for us it’s important to continue to stay in second place,” Sun head coach Stephanie White told The Next. “I think every time we step on the court, obviously we’re playing to continue to work towards playing our best basketball when the playoffs start, but it’s also important for us to keep the seeding. And we’re in second place, and we’ve got to stay focused and try to keep it.”
Connecticut is coming off two consecutive home losses, so the current away trip is important for ranking.
Mercury and Fever are two very different teams, so let’s see how Sun fares against both:
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The Phoenix Mercury
If the Sun secure second place, they will most likely play against the Phoenix Mercury in the first round of the playoffs.
In the three games the Sun have played against the Mercury this season, they have attempted an average of 23.3 three-point shots per game. That three-point attempt average is higher against the Mercury than against any other team in the league.
The Mercury have struggled with injuries and technical fouls since the Olympic break. Against the Las Vegas Aces on September 1, Mercury guard Natasha Cloud received her seventh technical foul of the season, which resulted in a subsequent one-game suspension, as required by league rules.
Mercury guard Diana Taurasi (six technical fouls) and guard/forward Kahleah Copper (six technical fouls) are both also at risk of suspension. Overall, the team also leads the league in technical fouls this season.
After going 13-12 in their first 25 games, the Mercury have gone just 4-7 since the Olympic break, and their offense has also waned. During that 13-12 stretch, the team averaged nearly 84 points per game; over the last 11 games, Phoenix is averaging 77.
Against the Mercury, the Sun might struggle to score in the box and compete against experienced players like Taurasi, Copper and center Brittney Griner. This trio was part of Team USA that won a gold medal at the Paris Olympics, so they are familiar with winning.
Sun forward Brionna Jones, forward/defenseman DeWanna Bonner and forward Alyssa Thomas may have a tough time scoring against Griner, a 6-foot-1 powerhouse, so if they want to be successful, they’ll have to be smart when moving to the basket. Plays that force Griner out of the box will also help them score points near the basket.
Because of Griner’s presence in the post, this could explain why Connecticut attempted more 3-point shots against the Mercury compared to other teams in the league.
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The Indiana Fever
If the Sun end up finishing 3rd, they may face a young Indiana team that hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2016.
The “fever” has been high lately and continues to work on team chemistry and cohesion. After the Olympic break, they have a record of 8-2 after starting the season 11-15.
Indiana has two big scorers: guard Kelsey Mitchell, who averages 24.9 points per game, and guard Caitlin Clark, who averages 24.7 points per game after the Olympic break. Forward/center Aliyah Boston has also had a big impact on the team’s recent success, currently averaging 9.1 rebounds per game.
Feisty defender Lexie Hull has been a secret weapon for the team, adding an extra threat on three-point shots. On August 18 against the Seattle Storm, she scored a career-high 22 points, hitting 6 of 7 three-pointers.
While Connecticut is a strong defensive team, those strengths haven’t quite matched the Fever’s offense. When the two teams played each other this season, the Sun allowed an average of 77.8 points per game, compared to the team’s season average of just under 74 points per game.
The Sun like to control the tempo of the game and switch between different plays to get the best shot available or create scoring opportunities through fast breaks from defensive plays.
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The collapse
Ultimately, the Fever and Mercury are moving in two different directions, and the Sun would probably prefer to see Phoenix in the first round. Either way, Connecticut still has room for improvement on offense before the playoffs begin, regardless of the opponent.
“I think it’s different in different moments,” White said of the team’s occasional offensive struggles. “I think sometimes we put pressure on ourselves to be perfect. We put pressure on ourselves to see one thing. We encourage them to just play a little more freely, relax, have fun, and they want it really bad, right? Sometimes when you want something really bad, you almost hinder your ability to get it because you’re tense, because you want everything to be perfect. And that’s not how it is in sports, right?
“We need to find moments where we can be a little more resilient, deal with adversity better and clear our minds. I think when we get into situations like this, we should encourage each other instead of putting more pressure on each other. This is a growth process and it can come from everyone on our team, from our employees.”
Part of the problem was slow game starts.
“That’s definitely something we talked about. We had some bad starts early in the season. And we wanted to come out better, but we just have to be able to maintain that, and I think it comes down to taking care of the ball,” Jones told reporters. “I think we had some bad turnovers, and it wasn’t necessarily because of what they were doing, it was just our communication and getting the ball where we wanted it. So I think we just have to do a better job.”
The Sun still have a few things to figure out before they can advance to the playoffs and win the franchise’s first championship, and their upcoming road games against Phoenix and Las Vegas will play a big role in determining their final standings.
“We want to grow together and get better, and we want to go full steam ahead into the playoffs,” Sun guard Marina Mabrey told reporters. “I don’t know if it’s a matter of life or death for us. I think it’s more that we’re disappointed that we didn’t play our best. And we want to play our best for four quarters every single game.”
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