In the undecided presidential race, Harris and Trump have different strengths and weaknesses

And what if they win? Harris and Trump supporters disagree about accepting their own candidate’s presidential actions

Ahead of the presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump scheduled for September 10, the presidential race is at a stalemate. About half of registered voters (49%) say if the election were held today, they would vote for Harris, while an equal share say they would support Trump.

Less than two months before the November election, the candidates bring different strengths and weaknesses to the presidential campaign.

Trump’s biggest advantage is the economy, which issue is most important to voters this year. A majority of 55 percent of voters say they are very or somewhat confident that Trump will make good decisions on economic policy, compared to 45 percent who say this about Harris.

Harris’ lead over Trump on the abortion issue is almost the mirror image of Trump’s lead on the economic issue: 55 percent of voters have at least some confidence in Harris, while 44 percent have confidence in Trump.

And Harris has a considerable lead over Trump in several personal characteristics and qualities. These include role model function (19 percentage points ahead), down-to-earthness (13 points) and honesty (8 points).

The Pew Research Center’s latest nationwide poll, conducted August 26-September 2, 2024 among 9,720 adults (including 8,044 registered voters), shows how much has changed – and what hasn’t – in the campaign since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Harris became the Democratic nominee.

Trump’s advantage in terms of “intellectual acuity” has disappeared. Currently, 61 percent of voters say the phrase “mentally sharp” describes Harris very or fairly well, compared with 52 percent who say that describes Trump. Two months ago, more than twice as many voters thought Trump was mentally sharp (58 percent) than thought Biden was mentally sharp (24 percent). (Read more about perceptions of the candidates in Chapter 3.)

Democrats’ satisfaction with the candidates has increased. The share of Harris supporters who say they are very or somewhat satisfied with the presidential candidates is nearly three times the share of Biden supporters who were satisfied in July (52% now, up from 18% then). As a result, Harris supporters are more likely than Trump supporters to say they are satisfied with the candidates today—a significant shift from just two months ago. (Read more about voter engagement and views of the candidates in Chapter 5.)

The status of the race. The overall support patterns for each candidate have changed little since last month. For example, Trump leads among white voters (56% to 42%), while Harris continues to hold large advantages among black voters (84% to 13%) and Asian voters (61% to 37%). Latino voters, whose support was evenly split between Biden and Trump in July, now favor Harris, 57% to 39%. (Read more about voter preferences in Chapter 1, and explore demographic differences in voter preferences in the detailed tables.)

Americans’ views on the economy remain overwhelmingly negative. Americans’ views of the national economy are about as negative today as they were earlier this year. Only 25% rate the national economic situation as excellent or good. Prices of food and consumer goods remain a major concern for most Americans, and more Americans are expressing concerns about housing costs and jobs. (Read more about economic attitudes in Chapter 7.)

How voters judge the influence of race and ethnicity, gender and age of candidates in a historic election

If she wins in November, Harris will make history and become the first female president. She would also be the first Asian American and the first Black president. If Trump wins, he will become the oldest president ever to take office at age 78. (Read more about voters’ views on the candidates’ demographics in Chapter 4.)

Voters are overall divided on the impact of Harris’s gender, race and ethnicity on her candidacy. More voters say the fact that Harris is a woman and Black and Asian will help rather than hurt her with voters this fall. Slightly more voters see Harris’ gender as a potential negative (30%) than her race and ethnicity (19%).

Harris supporters are far more likely than Trump supporters to believe that the vice president’s gender and race would be a liability. More than twice as many Harris supporters (42%) as Trump supporters (16%) think that the fact that Harris is a woman will hurt her with voters. Fewer Harris supporters believe her race and ethnicity will be a hindrance (31%), but only 8% of Trump supporters say the same.

Nearly half of voters say Trump’s age will harm his candidacy. Far more voters say Trump’s age will hurt him in the election (49%) than help him (3%); the rest say it won’t make much of a difference. Conversely, voters see the impact of Harris’ age: 46% say the fact that she is 59 will help her with voters, while only 3% say it will hurt her.

Harris and Trump supporters speak out: What actions are acceptable for a president?

Looking to the future, Harris and Trump supporters have very different ideas about what actions the president would accept if their preferred candidate were to take office (you can learn more about these views in Chapter 6):

Investigations against political opponents

More than half of Trump supporters (54%) say it would definitely or probably be acceptable if Trump ordered federal officials to investigate Democratic opponents. Only half as many Harris supporters (27%) say it would be acceptable if Harris ordered investigations of Republican opponents.

Pardon family, friends and supporters; dismissal of disloyal federal employees

In addition, Trump supporters are much more likely than Harris supporters to believe it would be acceptable for their candidate to pardon convicted friends, family members, or political supporters and to fire federal employees at all levels who are not personally loyal to them.

Implementing regulations

Both the majority of Trump supporters (58 percent) and Harris supporters (55 percent) say it would be acceptable for their candidate to make policy decisions based on presidential decrees if he cannot get his priorities through Congress.

Further insights: An uncertain election outcome, the more critical candidate, Trump and the 2020 election

Many believe Trump is too critical of Harris. About two-thirds of voters (66%) say Trump has been too critical of Harris, compared to fewer (45%) who say Harris has been too critical of Trump. About four-in-ten Trump supporters (41%) say Trump has been too critical of his opponent, compared to just 12% of Harris supporters who say the same of Harris.

Most say it is not yet clear who will win. Only 20 percent of voters say it is already clear which candidate will win the election, while 80 percent say it is not yet clear. Voters who think it is clear who will win overwhelmingly say their preferred candidate will prevail. When those who think it is not yet clear are asked for their “best guess,” they also choose their candidate.

Trump’s role in the 2020 election continues to be a source of division. More than four-in-ten voters (46%) say Trump broke the law to change the outcome of the 2020 election, while another 14% say he did something wrong but did not break the law. Another 27% say Trump did nothing wrong. These views have largely remained unchanged since April. While Harris supporters overwhelmingly say Trump broke the law (88%), Trump’s supporters are split: 54% say he did nothing wrong, while 27% say he either did something wrong or broke the law. Trump supporters (18%) are more likely than Harris supporters (7%) to say they are not sure.

Voters are also divided over the fraud case against Trump in New York. The poll was conducted before a New York judge delayed sentencing in Trump’s criminal case, in which he was found guilty of falsifying business records and other charges related to hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. Of all voters, 39 percent say Trump should serve prison time, while 45 percent oppose it. About seven-in-ten Harris supporters (72 percent) say Trump should serve prison time, while an even larger share of Trump supporters (81 percent) oppose it.